In anticipation of the win I was ready to write about the team, about their newfound leader Manny Harris, about coach Jim Beilein taking twelve kids to unthinkable heights. But I was struck by a comment I heard during the broadcast that was too good to ignore.
One of the announcers stated that Northwestern, who beat #20 Purdue on the road last Wednesday ruining Senior Night for the Boilermakers, was clearly "the best ninth-place team in the nation." I had a good laugh at that comment, then I started thinking about what the man said.
Michigan's win put the Wolverines at 19-12 overall, 9-9 in the conference, with the Big Ten postseason tournament yet to come. Thanks to big wins over UCLA and Duke (see my pic) they're considered in, without having to win 20 games. If the Northwestern Wildcats win tomorrow at Wisconsin, they will sit at 18-11 overall and 9-9 in the conference. A strong tournament run, not entirely out of the question, could easily vault the team in the cute purple unis to their first-ever March Madness experience. That's right, they've never made it to the round of 64 in school history.
Such is the crazy world of Big Ten basketball, 2009 edition. In fact, with three games remaining to be played the league could find itself with a five-way tie for fifth place - and fifth place earns a first-round bye next week in Indianapolis's crazy 11-team party.
But the potential for craziness doesn't stop there for me. Okay my potential for craziness has never fully been tapped, yet I digress. There's a not-so-implausible way that nine Big Ten teams could finish the season with 20 wins. Imagine nine conference schools making the NCAA tournament. That's unprecedented for the Big Ten, for college basketball and for the whole of college sport. And this so could happen.
Assume the five-way fifth-place scenario I mentioned earlier becomes a reality. In other words, let's say Northwestern goes to Columbus and drops the Buckeyes, and Wisconsin gets caught paying more attention to brackets than Hoosiers and falls to Indiana. (In the third regular-seson game, let's say Michigan State, who has already wrapped up an outright league title, loses to Purdue, who needs the win more. Each already has 20+ wins so the result is insignificant to my point.) The five-way knot sets into action several tie-breaking formulae, resulting in the following seed breakdown for next week's tournament: 1. Michigan State (14-4 in the Big Ten and 24-5 overall); 2. Purdue (12-6, 23-8); 3. Illinois (11-7, 23-8); 4. Penn State (10-8, 21-10); 5. Wisconsin (9-9, 18-12); 6. Northwestern (9-9, 18-11); 7. Michigan (9-9, 19-12); 8. Minnesota (9-9, 21-9); 9. Ohio State 9-9, 19-10); 10. Iowa (5-13, 15-16) and 11. Indiana (2-16, 7-23).
As I said earlier, the top five seeds get first-round byes. So on day one, 6 plays 11, 7 plays 10 and 8 plays 9. If Northwestern beats Indiana, Michigan drops Iowa and the Buckeyes beat Minnesota (all three resulting from the better team winning in my opinion), that creates the following quarterfinal matchups: Michigan State vs. Ohio State; Purdue vs. Michigan; Illinois vs. Northwestern and Penn State vs. Wisconsin. MSU takes care of business, Purdue outlasts Michigan, Wisconsin stops Penn State and Northwestern pulls off a mild upset over their in-state Illini rivals. That puts the Spartans in a semifinal matchup with Wisconsin, while Purdue faces Northwestern.
If the Badgers do to State what they've done 9 of the last 13 meetings and defeat them, they would become the ninth Big Ten team to hit the 20-win mark.
The bar for the major schools has been .500 or better league record and 20 wins overall. You hit those two marks and your ticket's stamped. So if it's impossible for the selection committee to fathom giving one conference over an eighth of its 65 invites, what will they do?
Will they say "no dice" to a 20-13 Michigan team with the nation's 11th toughest schedule; who took on all comers all season long, beating two top-five teams out of conference - one of which (Duke, see my pic) they actually played twice - and lost by single digits on the road at then-#1 UConn?
Will they give the heave-ho to a 20-11 Ohio State team two years removed from the national final, a team who crushed the Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish in consecutive games - both on the road?
Do they deny a 20-12 Northwestern squad who won more games against RPI-top-50 teams than any of these Big Ten teams, who reached the conference semis (in my scenario), their miraculous ride to the school's first-ever NCAA berth?
Would they dare cut the legs out from the 21-11 Penn State Nitany Lions, who despite their early conference tourney exit has had an at-large berth seemingly locked up for weeks?
Might they say "no mas" to 21-10 Minnesota - winners of their first twelve games, including a neutral-site victory over then-#9 Louisville - and Tubby Smith, the only Big Ten coach not named Izzo with a national title on his resume?
Or do they give the boot to the Badgers? Remember the Wisconsin Badgers? The team with the nation's sixth toughest schedule? Last we heard, they were 20-12 and waiting to play for my hypothetical Big Ten tournament championship. If they were to defeat the winner of my Purdue-Northwestern semifinal, it wouldn't matter what teams they played last December. They're in with the win.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has four Big Ten teams with their bags already packed, and five more holding their cell phones and waiting. Each of those five teams has a virtually identical story: fifth-place finish in the league, .500 or better conference record, 20 or more wins overall.
How bout we settle it with a game of H-O-R-S-E?
