Tuesday, September 29, 2009

How much don't they want it?

So a day has passed, and with it two of the most important games of the season for the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins. Two games packed with five games worth of excitement. And now that the infield dust has settled, guess what? We're exactly where we were the day before, with Detroit hanging onto a two-game lead in the AL Central.

If you just read the box scores, it would look like nothing more than a simple split of a day/night double-header. What you don't see in all those numbers is the non-stop drama of two teams winning despite their best efforts to give the games away.



Take nothing away from the poise and perserverence of pitcher Justin Verlander [see my pic], who has thrown more pitches than any other major league pitcher and added 129 more tonight in his 18th win of 2009. Was it really just a year ago when he had 17 games in the loss column? Or the six-plus innings of one-run ball thrown by rookie starter Rick Porcello. Or even the clutch hitting of center-fielder and lead-off spark plug Curtis Granderson, whose four Tuesday hits included eighth- and tenth-inning right-field bombs--the latter by day and the former by night.

The heroes wore both white and gray to be sure, as each team played with the fire of opportunity burning brightly in the crisp September air. But for the most part, what 65,000 fans saw on the field was anything but heroic. No home team slamming the door, no visiting team making a statement to their hosts. Instead they witnessed an array of brain-dizzying performances that made the crisp air feel more like that of late February Grapefruit-League Florida:

1. Normally flawless second baseman Placido Polanco--who owns the longest errorless streak for a major league second baseman and currently leads the AL in fielding percentage at .998--flat-out booted a routine grounder in the first game, putting a Twins runner in scoring position.

2. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire called for a suicide squeeze with one out and the score tied in the ninth inning of the early game (the batter, Nick Punto, needed only to put the ball in play for the winning run to score). Instead Punto popped his bunt attempt to pitcher Brandon Lyon, who tossed to Brandon Inge doubling up the runner on third.

3. Not to be outdone, Lyon threw consecutive wild pitches in the tenth inning that allowed Denard Span to move from first to third. (He had thrown just one all season.) Span ultimately scored on an Orlando Cabrera hit to break the 1-1 tie and key the Twins' 3-2 win.

4. In the second game Tiger skipper Jim Leyland brought in the speedy Wilkin Ramirez to pinch-run for Marcus Thames. A drifting Ramirez was picked off of first base without even intending to steal second on the play.

5. Granderson misjudged an outfield pop-up that would have been the final out of the nightcap. The ball sailed over his head for an RBI double, putting the tying run on second base.

6. And Fernando Rodney did what he does best, saving the second game after letting the tying run reach second and in so doing, inducing another 30,000 cases of acquired arrhythmia.

While both games were riveting, down-to-the-wire contests, they won't be remembered for their high caliber of play. Two circus geeks may make for an evenly matched forensic competition, but that doesn't mean they'll be debating neo-Marxism.

Nonetheless, the Tigers now sit at 84-73 with three games to go, the magic number for clinching their first-ever Central Division title (and first division tile of any kind since 1987) down to four. Their worst case scenario at this point would be losing three of four to the Twins and entering the final weekend series in a first-place tie. (Detroit hosts the Chicago White Sox, while Minnesota hosts Kansas City.) And their best-case scenario? Winning the final two games against Minnesota of cours, since the second of those wins would clinch the division Thursday afternoon.

The more likely scenario is that the teams split their final two games, and the four-game series. Minnesota has the pitching advantage (Twins veteran Carl Povano faces rookie Eddie Bonine on Wednesday, while Scott Baker goes for win #15 against the Tigers' Nate Robertson Thursday afternoon). But Leyland has the edge in the bullpen with more fresh arms, having used a total of three relievers in the first two games after Verlander and Porcello threw 14 1/3 of the 19 innings.

Minnesota will score early, Detroit will score late. If the Tigers can force the Twins starters to throw 20-pitch innings, or if Leyland can effectively maneuver his well-rested relievers, their chances for a sweep increase dramatically. If the Twins can jump to a sizable lead and ride their starters through seven strong innings, they can put their fate in the hands of stopper Joe Nathan to shut the door as he has all season.

A split would leave the Tigers two up on the Twins, putting their magic number at two. So with three games to go, a single Detroit win (or Minnesota loss) would lock up no worse than a tie and one-game playoff on Monday in the Twin Cities. Two Detroit wins, however--or two Minnesota losses, or one Detroit win and one Minnesota loss--and corks will be popping all over as the Motor City braces for another World Series run. Got riot gear?

How big a deal would it be to beat Michigan again?

Put it this way. The last time the Michigan State beat the Wolverines in consecutive football seasons, MAN HAD YET TO WALK ON THE MOON.

4 games in 49 hours. It's baseball's lightning round.



After being rained out last night, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins will now take the field today for a day/night doubleheader (fancy way of saying "no, you can't see both games with one ticket"). They play again tomorrow night and wrap up the series with a Thursday matinee.

So two days or roughly 52 hours from now, this race could be over. Or it could be just beginning.

One doesn't have to turn many pages in the way-back book to find the last instance of the Twins coming from nowhere to win the American League Central Division. Three years ago, the Tigers held the top spot, as they had for virtually the entire season. All they had to do was beat the Kansas City Royals at home in the season's final series. Win once and force a one-game playoff. Win twice and the championship banner goes to the printer.

Of course we all remember what happened. Detroit was swept in four ugly one-sided games, and Minnesota cashed in, winning the division and a much-easier AL Divisional Series match-up with the Oakland A's. In losing the gift given them, the wild-card Tigers had to travel to the Bronx and take on the Yankees, possessor of the league's best record and a lineup many were comparing to 1961.

Fans look back fondly at 2006 and conveniently forget that the kitties' playoff run began with an utter collapse. A choke-job the likes of which this baseball-mad town hadn't seen since the Toronto Blue Jays lost a 3 1/2-game lead to the Tigers in the final seven games of the 1987 season.

Coincidentally, seven games remain in 2009. And although Detroit's hairline lead is but two games, the tailspin--should Minnesota overtake them to win the division--will have officially begun three weeks ago. On September 6, the Tigers had a SEVEN-GAME lead on the Twins. And by the end of the day, they could be tied.

Here are the scenarios the Tigers face as they enter these four games--their most crucial series in years--with a magic number of six:

1. WIN THREE OF FOUR. Paaaaaar-ty. Division champs. On-field celebration Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon. A lap around the field. Champagne poured on the heads of policemen. Let the fun begin.

2. SPLIT THE FOUR GAMES. The Tigers remain two up and the magic number drops to two, as the teams enter the final weekend of the season. Detroit hosts the perennial thorn in their side, the Chicago White Sox. And Minnesota welcomes Kansas City to what could be their last three games at the Hefty Bag. UNLESS... they end the season tied with Detroit and force a one-game playoff, which would be held Monday afternoon in the Metrodome. Gulllllllp.

3. WIN ONE OF FOUR GAMES. This would result in a tie at the top of the division, with three games to go and the magic number at four. In this situation the Twins would seem to have the edge. Zack Grienke would surely pitch against them. Assuming he picks up where he left off on Sunday when he stymied Minnesota's bats on the way to a 4-1 Royals win, the Twins have a very good chance at winning the other two games. Which leaves Detroit facing the White Sox needing to sweep for the title, or win two to force a most inhospitable playoff game.

4. MINNESOTA SWEEP. The Tigers would enter the final weekend trailing the Twinkies by two full games. They would need to sweep Chicago and hope for the Twins to lose at least two games, or Detroit's next game will be in Lakeland next February.

THAT is how important this series is. And for the Tigers, the first game is most important of all. Win it and the Twins take the field tonight three games back, facing a magic number of four and a gunslinger named Verlander on the mound. Lose it and the Twins, who know they have favorable pitching matchups on Wednesday and Thursday, come back tonight down a single game and trying for a tie in a game many say they can afford to lose.

Don't you just love a pennant race in this town?

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

The Boys Of August



Another successful pre-season has ended, and while they failed to match their spotless 4-0 record of 2008, the Detroit Lions nonetheless delighted their fans, winning all but one game of this season's August slate.

The glow on the faces of Lions backers everywhere wouldn't be diminished by Sunday's 45-27 pounding at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. Most who follow the Honolulu blue and silver understand not to get too caught up in their team's performance during the sixteen meaningless games that remain. Leave those to the teams who feel the need to prove themselves on a snowy day in some frozen stadium. The focus for these Lions, as it has always been, remains the four-game stretch in the sweltering heat of August. Crunch time as it were.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes during a 26-for-34, 358-yard afternoon. But as strong as Brees performance may have been, it couldn't erase New Orleans' 10-7 loss the previous week to the Miami Dolphins, a loss that crushed their chances at a perfect pre-season and dropped them into a tie with Detroit for "pre-champs" in the league.

Lions running back Kevin Smith put it best when he said he'd rather win the pre-season games than the first regular-season game. Smith almost got his wish, were it not for Detroit's most unfortunate loss in Cleveland in pre-week 2. No matter. This Sunday the Lions return home to face Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings, as they continue their three-month tune-up for August 2010.