A likely scenario sure to make Harbaugh haters cringe

The Michigan football program is in a state of high alert. After a sloppy 40-21 win over Conference USA juggernaught Middle Tennessee, a lackluster yet unnerving double-overtime win over Army and a disemboweling blowout loss to Wisconsin in Madison that questioned the very Wolverine brand, the fan base has officially turned on its high-profile head coach. Jim Harbaugh, they insist, doesn't have what it takes to put a championship-caliber team together, and it's time for a change. #FireHarbaugh has been trending all week.

It's s frustrating as it is baffling. The coaches, the players, everything about this team should indicate a different product than what we've seen in the first quarter of the 2019 season. That's why I just don't buy the idea that this is a .500 football team, and that four or five losses are in store before the annual season-ending drubbing by the team from Columbus.

Why? Because it's just too convenient for those in favor of bringing a fresh new face onto the Western sidelines of Michigan Stadium. And because it doesn't make sense. Now I'm not talking about a rebound and a run at a conference title much less a CFP berth. I'm talking about a team that begins playing as it's supposed to play, and takes its place alongside similar good-to-very-good-but-not-great seasons in recent Michigan football history.

So, what follows is a likely scenario for the rest of this season.

Before we begin, the following points need to be made.

1. Nothing challenges a team to rise up to their potential like adversity. Every player on this team has been personally called out. They have something to prove not only to themselves, but to the college football world as well.

2. Outside of possibly Ohio State, the two most powerful running teams on Michigan’s schedule are Wisconsin and Army. The key weakness of the Wolverines heading into the 2019 season was run defense, and these two teams exposed it for all to see. Don Brown’s defense is better suited for the teams he’ll face this side of Thanksgiving.

3. Teams are never as good or as bad as they may appear. The Wolverines clearly aren’t a top-5 team—Coach Gattis’s offense is still in a onesie and making ridiculous mistakes—but once they achieve a coherence, they’ll turn out to be much stronger than people think they are now.

4. Harbaugh’s mentor, Bo Schembechler, faced similar fan backlash multiple times in his coaching career at Michigan:

a. In 1975, he opened the season with consecutive ties at home to Stanford and Baylor, two vastly inferior teams, and fans called for his head. “To hell with them!” he fired back at a press conference. The following week his 0-0-2 Wolverines spanked #7 Missouri, 31-7, the first of eight straight wins.

b. In 1980, one of his very best teams started out 1-2 with losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina. Bo had lost 5 of his last 6 games and he was on the hot seat before going on a roll, winning 7 straight B1G games including a 9-3 win in Columbus, and his first-ever Rose Bowl win.

c. After a loss in South Bend, Bo’s 1988 team blew a 16-point lead and lost to the Miami Hurricanes. After a 5-3 B1G season the year before, alums and fans thought Bo was past his prime and voiced their displeasure. Another angry coaching outburst followed, and the Wolverines wouldn’t lose again, going 8-0-1 for the B1G title and beating #4 USC for his only other win in Pasadena.

Now, as for what’s going to happen in the coming months, here’s what I feel we’re likely to see, based on the fact that this is Michigan we’re talking about. As I stated in the above rule, they’re ever as good or as bad as they may appear.

First, Rutgers—yes Michigan is a 27-point favorite, but it doesn’t erase the fact that this is the mother of all must-win games. The Scarlet Knights may capitalize early on the struggles the Wolverines are still going through, but Harbaugh will iron them out and the outcome will never be in doubt. Shea Patterson will reclaim his status as the team’s starting quarterback, while his challenger Dylan McCaffrey stands on the sidelines, a helpless victim of concussion protocol.

Then, homecoming a week later. A formidable top-15 opponent who just crushed the same Middle Tennessee team that the Wolverines struggled with in Week 1. Strong but not Wisconsin-strong. Disciplined but not Army-disciplined. This game will be a treat for the college football fan—far closer than anyone considered in August, when the perceived gap between the teams was more pronounced. The Wolverines, playing for their post-season lives on this first weekend of October, create good fortune in the form of a turnover or key special-teams play, and pull off a wild last-minute victory.

Michigan travels to Champaign-Urbana and roll the Illini, and all is well with the world once again. The 4-1 Wolverines have clawed within striking distance of the top 10, and feel good once again heading into Happy Valley, PA. Penn State enacts revenge on Michigan as Wisconsin had done, taking the lead early and holding off a furious Wolverine rally.

We see a return of what we’ve seen this week, with calls for Harbaugh to be sacked or step away, and #FireHaubaugh is trending once again. The Wolverines can’t possibly beat the top 10 Fighting Irish, as Jimmy never wins the big ones. Boom. Michigan plays its best game of the season. Shea looks surprisingly good until his injury (the offense has kept its starting quarterback from getting hurt just twice this decade so it’s going to happen, the only question is when; I’m saying it happens here). Enter Dylan McCaffrey, who runs, scrambles, leaps and passes the Wolverines’ way past Notre Dame in the schools’ last-ever meeting.

A hard-working defense and resilient offense become the identity of this team. Maryland presents a challenge, but misses the consistency and skill players to hold on in the second half. Michigan State pays a visit to the Big House, where they’ve lost just once since 2006. The Spartan defense frustrates Michigan, stopping the running game cold. However, MSU coach Mark Dantonio’s offense, which has struggled mightily all season, can’t put enough points on the board to stay in the game.

Another trip to Bloomington, IN, another contest that is much closer than anyone thought. Severe weather and plunging temperatures keep the turnovers high and the score low. Michigan’s defense force a key turnover late and win on a short Quinn Nordin field goal as the clock hits all zeroes.

So heading into The Game, Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines ended up overcoming the adversity, the loud verbal and social chants of “Fire Harbaugh!” from the maize and blue faithful, and the learning curve of adapting to a new offense, turning a nightmarish start into 9-2. Even a loss to Fighting Irish or the Spartans still means an 8-3 record and, once the Buckeyes turn him back for his fifth defeat in as many seasons, a decent bowl game, facing a very good SEC or ACC opponent, with at best a chance at its fourth 10-win season in five tries.

The result will be good enough for Michigan AD Warde Manuel to sign his boy Harbaugh to a hefty extension. And despite the exasperations of the Wolverine alumni and fan base, good enough means business as usual in Ann Arbor once again, now and for the foreseeable future. Not great, but very good. Good enough for a program who has lost less than three games in a season just twice since its 12-0 national championship in 1997—22 years ago.

Hail, to the good enough heroes.