Case in point, yesterday in Cleveland. The Guardians did everything right. Their starting pitching, who had held the league's best team to 3 runs the previous two games, handcuffed Detroit for 8 innings, allowing just one hit, and neutralized yet another heroic outing by Tiger ace Tarik Skubal. They cracked through Bailey Horn for the game's only run in the bottom of the 8th, and stood 3 outs from avoiding a weekend sweep.
So begins the most unlikely of unlikely comebacks.
Spencer Torkelson started off the "rally" by getting plunked. Needing to push the runner into scoring position with some base stealing, manager A.J. Hinch subbed him with third baseman Zach McKinstry, to whom he originally planned to give the day off. With one out, the speedy pinch runner took off and was called out at second. But heavens no. Replays showed his hand reaching the bag before the tag reached him, and the call was overturned.
McKinstry bolted for third as Dillon Dingler swung and grounded to short, forcing the Guardians' Brayan Rocchio into a safe throw to first for the second out. Leaving Cleveland ace Emmanuel Clase a favorable matchup with .196 hitter Parker Meadows at the #7 spot. With a 1-2 count, hoping to bait Parker with a cutter on the bottom of the strike zone, he unleashed a 99mph pitch into the dirt. Catcher Bo Naylor blocked it but somehow it spun five feet to his left. McKinstry, who noticed Jose Ramirez away from third base, was already cheating toward home when he saw the ball roll behind the catcher and instinctively shot toward home plate. Naylor never had a chance.
No hits. Nothing but a pop out to left, an easy ground ball, and a strikeout. But somehow, they inexplicably found a way to sneak the tying run around the bases. McKinstry wasn't done with his heroics either, as he took over at first base in the bottom of the ninth inning——his first career stint at the position——and with a man on second, saved a Cleveland base hit and likely the game by fielding a sharp grounder to his right and tossing it to relief pitcher Chase Lee covering at first. Setting the stage for a downright immaculate tenth inning.
The Guardians gave the ball to their lights-out reliever, Cade Smith. Smith was a key reason why Cleveland eliminated the Tigers in the 2024 ALDS, appearing in all 5 games, winning game 1, and posting a 1.42 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings of work. Detroit had yet to hit a single home run against the man, so to most in attendance, their success hinged on whether they could get the obligatory extra-innings runner at second base (in this instance, Meadows) home and take a one-run lead into bottom 10.
After a Baez single moved Meadows to third, Trey Sweeney——batting ninth, with an intimidating-to-no-one .195 batting average——redirected Smith's four-seam fastaball on a rope to left, heading towards and ultimately a teensy bit over Progressive Field's massive left-field wall. Tiger enthusiasts, myself included, delayed their enthusiasm as they watched the fly ball leave the ballpark, assumed it was foul, then realized it wasn't, realized Sweeney just went yard, THEN realized he went yard on the unhittable Cade Smith. Shock and awe quickly turned to screams and high-fives as the team rejoiced at home plate and Guardians fans found the nearest exits.
Smith was rattled, which made matters worse for his Guardians. Vierling followed by ripping a double into the gap in left field, scoring Torres on an error and advancing Vierling to third on another error. Riley Greene stepped up and took another four-seamer 386 feet over the left field wall. Suddenly, stunningly, the scoreboard read 7-1. Five batters into the 10th inning and the Tigers had scored more runs than both teams had combined for the entire weekend.
Cleveland pushed the runner on second across the plate in their half of the 10th but nothing more. In 3 games Detroit allowed just 3 runs in growing their league-leading record to an astonishing 57-34. In 133 games going back to August 11 of last year, when they began their improbable 31-11 run to the playoffs (at the time, their odds of doing so stood at two tenths of one percent), the Tigers are 88-45—a 107-win pace over 162 games.
What A.J. Hinch's gang of unknowns is doing is clear. How they're pulling it off is an absolute mystery.
The lone superstar is Skubal. Last year's winner of the American League Cy Young trophy and this year's overwhelming favorite to own bookends, Skubal tossed 7 innings of 3-hit, 10-K shutout ball yesterday in his day of revenge on the Guardians.
Skubal's last visit to Progressive Field was the infamous game 5 of the American League Championship Series, where the leftie got shelled in a fifth inning punctuated by Lane Thomas's towering grand slam to left-center field, effectively ending the Tigers' improbable playoff run, not to mention their season. It's all but a distant memory to Tarik, who is 10-2 so far this season with a paltry 2.02 ERA in 116 innings.
The rest of the team has collectively and consistently played over their heads. After an off-season that saw the Dodgers and Yankees reach the $300 million mark in player salaries, the Detroit Tigers are leaving them both behind while bankrolling less than a third as much.
Javier Baez and Jack Flaherty, who together take home two-fifths of the team's 2025 take-home pay, are barely a part of this team's success. Flaherty is 5-9 in 17 starts with a 4.84 ERA in 90 innings. Baez is in the midst of his best season in Detroit—yet that simply translates into a .280 average with 9 HRs and 71 hits in 250 at-bats. Worthy of the 8-spot in the lineup yesterday in Cleveland. Hardly the Moneyball model, but Hinch will take it nonetheless.
The 1984 World Series Champions—the Standard By Which All Detroit Tiger Teams Are Measured Moving Forward—won the American League East by 15 games. This year's model is already up by 13.5 games a week before the All-Star break. While no letdown is in sight, the laws of baseball say it's inevitable. Coming out of the break, these Motor City Kitties are amassing a cushion comfy enough to absorb a decent-sized slump in the 2 1/2 months that follow. A team of true believers, on a pilgrimage to their first division title in over a decade.
Prayers for continued success are welcome, but they may not be necessary.
