Something strange is going on with Henrik Zetterberg (see my friend's photo) and his Detroit Red Wings. They entered their playoff round with Nashville with a fire in their collective belly, taking the first two games and with them, a seemingly insurmountable lead in the series. Yet now the best-of-seven battle has turned into best-of-three, their lead has disappeared, and they sit tied at two, one slip-up away from another disappointing playoff run.
What's strange is, we act like we've never seen this before.
How many times do we need to watch something unfold before we change our expectations? Fifteen years ago, the Red Wings' Stanley Cup express was derailed with what appeared to be an historic upset at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs after losing game 7 at home in overtime. The following season (1994), the Wings Stanley Cup express was derailed... yadda yadda yadda... game 7 at home... yadda yadda yadda historic upset by the San Jose Sharks. Last year's loss to the Anaheim Mighty Ducks is as inexplicable as the loss to the Edmonton Oilers the season before. Perhaps, if you put everything together and roll it up in a ball, there's a pretty valid explanation after all.
Detroit has the longest current streak of post-season appearances of any major sports franchise. Not only that, but they have had home-ice advantage in their first-round series each and every playoff season since the streak began. This bears rephrasing: since 1992--a streak of 17 seasons--the winged wheels have finished among the top four teams of their conference. That span has seen three Stanley Cups and four conference championships, to be sure. But it has also seen five first-round exits--twice where they were the top seed and another when they were the defending NHL champs.
Here's yet another way you can look at it. Looking back over their long post-season streak, name the instances where the Red Wings lost a series they should have lost. THAT is the problem. The first- and second-round exits were series where they had home ice, and whose outcome was viewed as an upset. Even the four-game sweep by New Jersey in the 1995 Stanley Cup finals was a total surprise by most, many of whom predicted the exact opposite. Had they met expectations just a third of the time over the course of this streak, they would have been regarded as perhaps the most successful pro sports franchise of the last quarter-century, their six titles matched only by the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls.
Since 1991, the NHL playoff series that come closest to an "as expected" Detroit loss would be the following:
> 1992 Norris Division final vs. Chicago. First of all, this was back when there was a Norris Division. Second, this was the season the Blackhawks rode goalies named Belfour and Hasek to the Stanley Cup finals. And third, despite Detroit losing each game by a single goal, they were swept in four games. The verdict: no upset.
> 1996 Campbell Conference final vs. Colorado. Despite the Avs rolling on to a four-game sweep of the Florida Panthers to capture their first Cup, I am very reluctant to include this series as one they were expected to win. Before the series it was assumed the Red Wings would return to the finals for the second straight season. Furthermore, had it not been for one Paul Coffey, who intercepted a defensive clearing pass and drilled a slapshot past Chris Osgood in a blunder that would make Roy Riegels turn in his grave--the wrong way, of course--the Red Wings would not have gone to overtime in game 1 (which they lost). Meaning there would have been a game 7 back at Joe Louis Arena. And I get the feeling they do well in general when it comes to game sevens against the Avs. The verdict: upset.
> 1999 Western Conference semifinals vs. Colorado. Without the home ice, it could be argued that the Avs had the advantage. But it could be equally well contested that the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions would be favored until they were defeated. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the Red Wings won the first two games and that they were played in Colorado. That and the fact that the series seemed to turn on the broken finger of Igor Larionov tip the scales toward an unexpected win by Team Sakic. The verdict: upset.
> 2000 Western Conference semifinals vs. Colorado. Maybe, maybe this wasn't the upset loss we've seen in other seasons. Yet still, many hockey experts foretold of the Red Wings gaining a measure of revenge after the previous year's series defeat. The fact that this series ended on the Joe Louis Arena ice in five games, however, lends credence to the argument that the better team won. The verdict: no upset.
The point stands that the Detroit Red Wings have entered each of the last 17 post-season campaigns with a decided advantage. Yet in all but six seasons (the three Stanley Cup wins and the one year they reached the Cup finals, plus the aforementioned '92 Chicago and '00 Colorado defeats) they have ended up underachieving. Every game they lose they seem to have a decided advantage in shots. Every series they start out strong, then fall behind, then start pushing the puck ahead time and time again on those long familiar 1-on-3 mismatches, with no hope of success. Every year the philosophy is so well understood by the opponents that they block as many shots as those that reach the goal. Their teams have been lined with Hall Of Fame-caliber talent. Paul Coffey, Mark Howe, Larry Murphy, Vladimir Konstantinov, Slava Fetisov, Darien Hatcher, Niklaus Lidstrom, Chris Chelios, Matthieu Schneider and Brian Rafalski. And these are just the defensemen.
But hey, Charlie Brown keeps running up to kick that football. Our electorate keeps putting Republicans into the White House. Maybe the crazy people are right. Despite the repeated result, we should keep expecting something different. After all, this is THE year, right?
With two decades of consistency to draw from, I think I have a pretty good idea what to expect in the coming week or two.
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