Rushing to judgement: Michigan 20, Northwestern 17

As the shadows grew long in Evanston, the Michigan Wolverines' modus operandi grew just as tired.

The Wildcats had stuffed the talent-rich Wolverine offense throughout the first quarter, limiting them to one first down and 23 hard-earned yards in three possessions. And when Northwestern power back John Moten ran it in from three yards out, Michigan found itself in familiar territory, down early and down big on the road.

One month ago in South Bend, the maize and blue ran through the tunnel with visions of overpowering an equally untested Notre Dame squad. With ten minutes gone in the second quarter they trailed 21-3, having gained exactly 100 yards of total offense in nearly half a game.

Sure, we could focus on the rest of what happened on Saturday. How the staunch Michigan defense closed the valve tightly on Northwestern for good, shutting them out the rest of the way. How quarterback Shea Patterson, with a newfound need for productivity, got productive to the tune of 20 points—the last 7 coming at the end of a six-minute, potential season-saving drive with Karan Higdon running the last five yards untouched for the deciding points. How the Wolverines turned a 17-0 hole into a courageous 20-17 win that ranks among the greatest comeback victories in school history.

Blah blah freakin' blah.

The point that must be moved into the lead position is the insistence from a coaching staff who finally has skill position options as vast as the field is wide, to keep it on the ground first and foremost. Michigan has run twice for every pass attempt in every game since their opening week loss to Notre Dame, when after six rushes in their first seven offensive plays they trailed 14-0 and had no choice but to open things up. "We must establish the run" was once a sexy phrase when uttered by the Bos and Woodys of the day, when four out of five times the likelihood of success for one of the "Big Two" against one of the "Little Eight" wasn't ever in doubt.

Yet in the era of checks and audibles and read offenses, those could be the final words of a soon-to-be-departing coach. What Michigan's stubborn addiction to the strategies of yore has done is given weaker opponents a shot at playing the odds and pulling off an upset, while giving their strongest opponents (read: the rivals they can't seem to beat) a can't-miss game plan. Coach Harbaugh might as well send opposing coaches copies of the U-M playbook.

Then again, he doesn't really have to. Is there a more predictable offense in the entire B1G than Michigan's? With 28 first down plays on Saturday, the Wolverines ran the ball 21 times. It helps explain why Michigan gained less than 200 yards of total offense despite possessing the ball for nearly 35 minutes. It also explains how Northwestern could stay in the game until the final seconds.

Mostly, it exemplifies an offense that knows it can fall back on its defense to cover for any and all shortcomings. Led by Chase Winovich and The Man Every Offense Runs Away From, Rashad Gary (see my pic), the crew that remains the hallmark of the Jim Harbaugh era once again answered the call, holding the Wildcats to 97 yards of offense in the final three quarters and reclaiming familiar territory of its own as the nation's #1 overall defense.

As was the case last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, the Wolverines approach the season's halfway mark with the table still set for them. The Notre Dame defeat that looked so crushing a month ago is now viewed through objective optics a seven-point road loss to an unbeaten top-10 rival, a rival who toyed with formerly unbeaten and #7-ranked Stanford 38-17 this past weekend. And while they dropped a spot to #15 in the AP poll, assuming they take care of business at home against Maryland this Saturday they are a three-game run through #16 (Wisconsin), #20 (Michigan State) and #11 (Penn State)—all without leaving the state—from being right in the thick of things as a hot 8-1 contender. Two winnable games away from an all-or-nothing battle in Columbus.

To those of us who know better, however, this has an odor reminiscent of Wolverine football version 2017. A team who looked so impressive in August, yet seemed to simply survive games they should have won easily—an overtime decision over Indiana, a lackluster win at Purdue, sluggish performances against heavy underdogs Cincinnati and Air Force.

And to the select few of us who've acquired a nose for vintage Harbaugh football, the scent of impending defeat is unmistakable. Since 2015 the Wolverines are 15-2 during September but just 17-10 after, including three straight losses at the end of last season and three Ls in four games to close out 2016.

It's one thing for a team to dare another to stop them on the ground when they don't have a shaky offensive line. Michigan may be able to get away with it against the Northwesterns of the world. But four outstanding defensive fronts remain on the schedule, each every bit as good as the one who took the Wolverines apart on week 1 if not better.

As a result, schools who otherwise have little chance of victory identify your inescapable mindset, stack the box and dare you not to run. Unable to help yourself, you ignore the single-coverage mismatches on either side and pull your tight ends close, shifting into I-formation to bang helmets once again in hopes of pushing the pile forward.

It's football's equivalent of the infield shift. One soft little grounder to third and and a left-handed hitter can run the bases. But if you're Victor Martinez, you can't help but drive it sharply toward the sea of gloves. All the while thinking to yourself, "We must establish the pull!"