Here We Roar Again

So here we are, Detroit baseball fans. The same place we were five years ago. Our Tigers fresh off a 95-win season and a nice shiny trophy for that Verlander fella, on their way to New York to face the Yankees in the ALDS. Then, like now, the Bronx Bombers at 97-65 were just two games ahead of Detroit. Yet everyone picked them to win.

As you can see from this link, I was one of the very few to pick the Tigers to shock the world and upset the Yanks back in '06, in four games at that. Splitting the first two at (then the old) Yankee Stadium, and sweeping NY in both games in the D. And shock the world they did, winning in four exactly as I predicted. (Just to add a bit of perspective, I was on record as saying that Ryan Leaf was a better, longer-lasting choice than that Peyton Manning kid. Nonetheless.)

So unplug your ipod and zoom ahead five years to 2011. Same situation awaits this ball club. So who goes on to face the winner of the Texas-Tampa ALDS? Now, like then, the pick is Detroit. And although I'm tempted as hell to say kitties in three, I'll give the Yankees a win before the door shuts on their season.

Why Detroit in four? For too many reasons to mention. But I'll try.

1. Justin. Verlander. Forget his poor playoff outings from years past. This year he's 24-9, a lock for the Cy Young award and a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP. If the Yanks hope to win this series, they'll most likely have to get to #35 at least once, as he's the likely starter for a deciding game 5.

2. Doug Fister. The freaking kid is like one of those Japanese knives on TV that keep getting sharper the more you use it. Every outing is more commanding than the one before. He's the guy the Yanks aren't waiting for. And if JV picks up win #25 in game 1, Douggie may be the one to push New York to the brink of elimination, before the series really gets underway.

3. These ARE your father's New York Yankees. In 2006 the names to watch on the New York side were Jeter, A-Rod, Cano, Pasada. All of them are still playing on the 2011 squad, each five years older than they were before the '06 ALDS. The two notables missing from the list this year are former Tiger Curtis Granderson and former Indian C.C. Sabathia. This is a team about to undergo a major transition. A transformation, if you will. And nothing would kick-start that process than a sound defeat of the pinstripes over the next week.

4. Jim Leyland. He has all the pieces needed to out Fisher Joe Girardi's Spasky. The New York Yankees don't scare him, didn't then and don't now. He's done a masterful job of getting by for the majority of the season without long relief. And now must get his kids believing that this year's edition of the Detroit Kitties aren't about to be stopped just yet. Not for a series or two.

5. Our 9th inning is better than theirs. One converted more save opportunities in one season than anyone in major league history. The other has more career saves than any other pitcher, ever. Mariano Rivera was once the light's-out closer for the ages. But he's aged as well, and every year takes another mile per hour off your fastball. And although it's generally been a rarity, he has been hit and hit hard. Of the two, the edge has to be Tiger stopper Jose Valverde, Mr. Perfection is a pristine 49-for-49 in save opportunities, and no one in baseball is more automatic at nailing down those final three outs.

6. Pitching aside, the teams are pretty much even. Forget the two extra wins on New York's part. these cats is practically interchangeable in terms of talent. The Yankees are the stronger team defensively, but Detroit has the better bats in their lineup. If it all comes down to pitching, the edge in this series heads north a few hours. The way Fister's pitching of late, the Yanks must face the reality that in three of the five games they will be facing Verlander, Fister and Verlander. And the other two games are in Detroit.

7. Miguel. Why he wasn't a regular part of the AL MVP talk, especially in September, is beyond me. But in the four out of five games that Verlander doesn't pitch, Cabrera is the team's most valuable guy.

So there it is. Tigers in four, then off to play one of two smoking-hot teams, either Texas or Tampa Bay. Unless their series goes five and needs extra innings, the Tiger dream will most likely end in the ALCS and one of those two organizations will head to the Fall Classic. But given the way the games played out yesterday, we're all better off just waiting until the ALCS comes.