[written and shared 10/3/06, at 7:18pm... an hour before the first pitch of game 1]
To quote Ben Crenshaw the night before the final day of the 1999 Ryder Cup (while waving my finger like he did), "I'm a big believer in fate. I've got a good feeling about this. That's all I've got to say."
You guys will probably think I'm off my John Rocker here, but I believe the Tigers are going to take it in four. In four! So how could I arrive at such an outlandish prediction? Here's how:
1) NOBODY thinks they can win this series. Which is perfect.
2) They're all of 2 games behind the Yankees in the win-loss column, so there's no great divide in terms of each team's record.
3) They've won more road games than any other team this season (49, or six more than the entire 2003 season--home AND away).
4) Forget the mystique. The Yankees are in the midst of a six-year, millenium-long title slump. They've lost the World Series to the likes of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins. They were up on the Red Sox three games to zero, having won game 3 with a 19-run explosion, and proceeded to lose four straight. It's a string of futility long enough to fuel suspicion that maybe there's something more to it. Something more justifiable than goats or 80-year-old trades.
5) They have The Marlboro Man, manager Jim Leyland (see photo, taken by yours truly). Leyland is the key to all of this. He, being of sane mind, risked a division title so he could rest his pitchers for the playoffs. Don't underestimate that. It didn't seem possible that his young horses would get swept by a team they'd already beaten 14 out of 16 times. But then, people lose poker hands with straights too. In games of chance nothing is certain. I myself would have put money down--eagerly--on the Tigers winning at least one of the three games. Yet as long as those odds were, they're a Tiger Woods tap-in compared to Detroit's three-year rise from baseball's abyss.
How soon we forget. Travel back to October 2003. The Tigers had just wrapped up a 43-119 season, the worst in American League history. Let's say, right then and there, you were to throw down $1,000 on that disgrace of a team making the playoffs thirty-six months later. In minutes you'd see a long line of takers, all wanting a piece of your action. And that's just the local clergy. Who knew then that from the top down, from Mr. I to their single-A farm club, the organization would commit itself to winning from that point forward? For the finishing touch, they replaced local hero Alan Trammell (who deserves a share of the credit for this season's success) with a chain-smoking, straight-shooting genius. They let go of a piece of their glorious past, so they may taste glory once again. The irony sure is delicious.
Yes, Leyland's decision to pull a few key players from the season's final weekend looks bad now. But let's wait till the hand's over before we make our final judgement. It's not that the gamble didn't pay off; it's just that it hasn't paid off yet. And I have this Captain Ben feeling that in the end, it will. After all, Leyland had enough confidence in his young staff to leave Mike Moroth off of the playoff roster. Hmm. What if the old man really does know what he's doing after all? Show of hands... who thought last March he'd wind up winning 95 games and we'd be talking playoffs right now? Exactly. Coach has been at this for awhile. He started in the Tigers farm system back in 1963. As a manager, he beat a better team than the 2006 Yankees (the '97 Indians) with a group less talented than this year's Tigers (the '97 Marlins), to win a World Series trophy in 1997. The Yankees, particularly this year's version, don't scare him.
Okay. Here's what I think. I think they split in the Bronx and take the next two at the Coma. I don't see them beating Wang in Yankee Stadium, but they could easily get to Mussina in the middle innings and hang on for the win. They then rock Randy Johnson off the mound in game 3 before closing it out with a dramatic late-inning homer on Saturday. I see Monroe sending that soon-to-be-historic pitch into the jubilant left-field bleachers. The Tigers will celebrate at home plate, then get ready for the next series nobody picks them to win.
Sound like a plan?
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